If you read my last article about making predictions for Boise Real Estate, you’ll remember that making predictions in real estate is risky business but I’ve gone ahead and decided to do it anyhow.
My first prediction is going to be pretty conservative. Rather than having you wait until the middle of August to know how many homes sold in July, I am going to tell you today!
This prediction is going to be tough because we currently have nearly double the pending contracts last month than there were the year before. So, the actual sales could be higher than I am going to predict if they wind up closing in the next 15 days. Chances are though, they wont because I have a feeling that many of them are ’short-sales’ which could take longer.
This prediction is based on Ada County Re-sale Single Family Homes. If you’d like other predictions, let me know and I’ll put them together for you.
My Prediction For Total Sold Homes In The Month Of July
- I predict that the sales in July will follow suite of the last 5 years and drop about 7-10% from the highest selling month of the year which is June. Last month 462 re-sale homes sold and this month, I predict that 415-430 re-sale homes will close for the month of July.
There, I said it! (Although I hope I’m wrong!)
Why I Could Be Right
Traditionally, going into the month of July, we peak for the summer market and from there, the total amount of sales drop. With exception to 2005, sales dropped as normal in July but then in August, they rose sharply and then dropped as usual.
Why I Could Be Wrong
As I mentioned before, there is a significantly higher amount of pending sales in the pipeline – 67% higher to be more accurate. If these are set to close this month, we will actually break out of a 5 year trend and have July become a better month than June. I hope this happens!
Keep your eyes open for my next prediction and in the mean time, please consider who might benefit from the services that I provide and who may enjoy reading what I write.
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I’m looking at July numbers and your prediction was pretty good.
Sales look to be be down 8% from June ‘09; but up 5% from July ‘08.
I show a higher number of unit sales in June (577) and July (529) than you; but the change from month-to-month is the same as you predicted.
Many other positive numbers. See more on aCAR’s Watercooler blog at http://acarwatercooler.blogspot.com/
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