"Look out Beloooow!"

The Boise Real Estate Market saw pending home sales fall 30.64% in May, just after the deadline of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone paying attention, even Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, said, “In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales.”

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Oddly enough this analysis was tucked quietly and tightly between the paragraphs of a May 4th NAR report that mentioned “pending home sales were on an upswing.”

I’m sure NAR copywriters are digging in to find some more news that can me misconstrued in a another attempt to keep consumers sleepwalking.

Perhaps it would be sufficient to be honest and truthful about the conditions of the market. No matter the news, good or bad, people still have to move: Some get relocated for work, some retire, some get married, some get divorced and the list goes on and on.

Boise Real Estate Stats (May 2010)

All stats cover Ada County and are derived directly from Intermountain MLS

• Pending Sales–As previously mentioned, pending sales fell in May by 30.64%
• Sold Homes–Fell 6.8 percent from April to May, but, sold homes are up nearly 43% over the same time one year ago….not bad!
• Median Price–Down 10% YTD, however, it’s up from April and standing at $155,000
• Inventory–Lower than it has been in previous years, but May brought a 4.29% gain and it sits at 3720 homes for sale in Ada County.

If you’d like a FULL set of the May Statistics for Boise & Ada County Real Estate complete the short form and you’ll get access to them INSTANTLY!

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Photo Credit IMLS

The 2010 Boise real estate market is almost half over.  So how’s it been?  We’ve just come off the Home Buyer Tax Credit buzz and are walking into the seasonally ‘good’ months of Boise real estate, but how is it going to shake out?  Lets take a look!

Boise Real Estate Stats for 2010 (so far)

Since January, sold units have increased each month with each month beating it’s previous year number:

YTD SOLD

• January 09–235 Sold vs. January `10–282 Sold (20% Increase over last year)
• February09–274 Sold vs. February `10–348 Sold (27% Increase over last year)
• March 09–385 Sold vs. March `10–564 Sold (46% Increase over last year)
• April 09–422 Sold vs. April `10–676 Sold (60% Increase over last year)

Overall that’s a pretty good comparison and something our market should be proud of.  But, I’m not so sure that we can use these numbers to identify any long term trends.

After all, we can’t forget that the Tax Credit deadline of April 30th, 2010 has had something to do with these numbers.  To see what I mean, check out the Pending Sales Activity:

As we’ve approached the Tax Credit deadline, buyers were scrambling to get something under contract or Pending.  So, I’d expect there to be a fairly sharp decline in the May & June Pending sales…we’ll have to wait and see.

YTD PENDING

• January 2009–319 Pending vs. January 2010–766 Pending (140% Increase)
• February 2009–326 Pending vs. February 2010–928 Pending (184% Increase)
• March 2009–468 Pending vs. March 2010–1072 Pending (129% Increase)

As you can see, the number of listings that went pending in 2010 through March is incredible…but, those numbers owe their existence to the tax credit bribe.

Of course National Association of Realtors recently reported an increase in pending home sales, most agents are going to try and ride it out as a smoke screen to get folks excited about a turd of an economy.  Do yourself a favor, don’t buy into it.

Unemployment is Key

If we want to see a sustainable housing market, Boise needs jobs.  Lots of them.  That however, is where there is good news to report.  Business Week reported today that Idaho saw it’s largest 1-month jobless drop in 3 decades.  Hopefully, those jobs aren’t just more folks (framers, plumbers and electricians) filling the orders for pending new construction….

What does it all mean to you?

Regardless of the housing market and economy, you probably live in a house right.  The key difference is whether or not you rent or own (rent from the bank) or are looking to buy (or rent from the bank).

If I was looking to buy, I’d stick to good sense real estate rules: Location.  But be prepared to compete.  Even though there are many people who can’t sell or are upside-down, it isn’t the buyers market you might think it is or that your buddy told you it was.

Stick to good areas of town like Southeast Boise, Northeast Boise and the North End (common) where median prices are affordable, but holding on.  Demand is usually high in those areas and should continue to see strength in the coming months, especially as inventory drops.

More Stats Available

If you want specific stats, just let me know.  I specialize in strategic market research for builders and developers and can easily get you the data you want and need. Just email me!

Interest Rates

Interest rates are tough.  I’ve said it before, loan originators have it easy:  They can tell you that rates are going up and if they are right, they’re the heroes and if they don’t you win.

From what I’ve been hearing around the campfire, rates should hold fairly steady, but with recent economic and market news, I’d suggest talking to a local pro!

Search For Boise Homes For Sale

You’ve come to the right place if you want cutting edge tools to start your home search without the hassle.  Feel free to use my home searching tools and if you’re interested, just register and you can get some pretty specialized attention!

The recent housing boom was full of McMansion construction focusing on BIG homes.  Today, this isn’t the case–buyers are  demanding smaller homes and “move-down” houses.  Just take a look at what kind of homes are for sale in Boise and you’ll see that the trends are moving to smaller floor plans.  When you think about it, the real estate boom focused on large homes, not location…bad idea!

Un-Supersize Me

Across the nation, people are building smaller homes.  In Ada County, the average size new construction home for sale is getting smaller.  In 2005 the average size new construction home was 2180 Sq/Ft compared to its peak in 2007 at 2436 Sq/Ft.   The average size of homes in Boise has continued to fall through the end of 2009 by 14% where the new average is around 2100 Square Feet.

First Time Home Buyers

Driven by the tax credit, first time home buyers are the cause of some of this drift in real estate demand.  Focusing on financing and loan approval, first time home buyers lack the larger budgets of move-up buyers who often have larger down payments and family size.

Baby-boomers and Down-sizers

With everyone away at college a big house is lonely and a lot of work.  Millions are sizing down and focusing on quality real estate rather than size. Most buyers 55 and over forgo the two-story homes and stick to single level which are generally smaller altogether.

Cost and Value Driven

It seems today that more people are interested in looking frugal rather than wasteful.  Getting good deals are more trendy, but some cost savings come at an up front price.  Take Energy Star for example.  Getting a home certified would require an upgrade in components that aren’t necessarily cheap:  Furnace, insulation, windows and taped duct work, but they provide a significant monthly savings on utility bills.  Many of the homes for sale in Boise are Energy Star or Energy Star Certified.

Among many buyers, value is beginning to come from other areas besides size:  Proximity to work, energy efficiency, different counter-top materials besides granite.   The real value is in owning the real estate, not the improvements!

Looking for a good location?

At the top of the list with some people is location, and why shouldn’t it be?  Sacrificing finishes, floor plans and other amenities is a great idea if the location is right!  A good location will provide lasting value once the novelty of trendy finishes wear off.

If you’re looking for a good location let me know, I have a few great ideas that would make a really good purchase, or, take a swing at my Boise home searching tool!  Its free to use and doesn’t require sign-up!

If you’re going to buy a home in Meridian, it’s worth your time to read this short article about which subdivisions are selling best!

Out of curiosity today I decided I would go through the MLS and find the top selling subdivisions in Meridian year-to-date.  I had pretty good idea which subdivisions I thought would be the top and kind of surprised myself to know that I was pretty darn close.

This list doesn’t necessarily try to assert which subdivisions are the best, but simply point out which ones have had the most sales year-to-date.  Each subdivision is very unique, offers different amenities, has different styles of homes in somewhat different price ranges.  I think it would be safe to point out however, that there are similarities between each of these subdivisions that make them the top performing subdivisions in Meridian.

***As an added bonus I decided to see which of these subdivisions had the most distressed properties.  The total amount of distressed properties really has nothing to do with the success or failure of each subdivision, they’re way too many factors involved to try to distinguish exactly why there would be a difference in distressed properties: age of the subdivision, timing of the construction, and personal ownership.

So without further ado here are the…

Top-selling subdivisions in Meridian:

• Saguaro Canyon — 36 Homes Sold
• Bridge Tower — 38 Homes Sold
• Lochsa Falls — 64 Homes Sold
• Paramount — 64 Homes Sold
• Tuscany — 67 Homes Sold

As I mentioned the homes on this list got here not because of one being better than the other, but because the total number of homes sold year-to-date I have to bend the rules slightly however because it Lochsa Falls more than half of the properties were financially distressed.  Again this doesn’t necessarily make Lochsa Falls a bad place to live, unless of course you like living next to homes that are bank owned and vacant.

Subdivision with the Most Distressed Properties

Lochsa Falls– of the 64 sales, 41 of them were either bank owned, a short sale, or in foreclosure. Some of you might know Lochsa Falls was pretty much built out  during the real estate boom.  The large quantity of distressed properties is most likely the reason that Lochsa Falls had so many sales in 2009.

Be an Educated Buyer!

I think it’s safe to say that over the years these 5 subdivisions have had quite a lot of draw and buyer attention.  I also think it’s safe to say that if you currently buying in today’s market the one of these five places could be a good pick. Don’t forget though you need to sit down and draw out your Home Buyer Action Plan that includes a well thought out goal for your family, a budget and a plan B.

There are lots of good places to buy that aren’t on this list, but before you consider making a purchase in a different subdivision you need to be educated on why some real estate is better than other real estate.

If you would like to sit down and have me draw out a Home Buyer Action Plan for you, and help determine if you’re ready to buy a home in this market please give me a call or send me a friendly e-mail.

Also don’t forget to subscribe to this blog so that you’re notified of new market updates, good deals, and important real estate news!

I had a client (you know who you are) ask me today what the median home price is for the Meridian area.  I didn’t know it right off hand, so I thought that I’d look.  It would be a waste of information if I didn’t share it with you so here goes:

The Median Home Price For Homes For Sale In Meridian

• Active (For Sale):  $179,900
• Sold: $170,000

The Median Home Price For Homes For Sale In Boise

• Active (For Sale): $185,000
• Sold: $165,100

Obviously not very good news for those who might be trying to get their home sold (unless you bought it prior to the boom).

As far as Ada County is concerned the 3rd quarter median price for a home is $168,900 down 17.61% from the same time last year!  Wow.  Only time will tell if the free fall of prices has stopped.  Lets hope it has!