A report came out very recently that predicts that Idaho, among a few other states will be the first to see economic recovery. The report was created by Moody’s Economy.com and it predicts that 5 States including Idaho will see job growth starting in the 4th quarter of this year.
If the report is accurate, job growth will be a step in the right direction toward a housing recovery. Don’t get overexcited though, I believe the news, if correct, will have more of an impact on stabilizing cash strapped and credit crunched households allowing them to keep their homes rather than seeing a dramatic increase in home values. There are more factors that effect the Boise Real Estate Market than people getting some jobs.
What I really liked about the article was the ‘Adversity Index’, an interactive map that shows past trends in key economic factors including: Employment, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, and House Prices. From what I can tell, the research is pretty accurate, but, they have lumped a fairly broad amount of data into the numbers which can skew things a bit.
What’s Next For Boise Real Estate?
In the coming months, I think we can expect more of the same…sorry, I just don’t think that a turn around is on the horizon. Keep in mind however, we need to erase the last few years from our minds because the numbers that the Boise Area Real Estate Market turned out were extremely abnormal.
As always, people will keep moving about for various reasons and there will be a demand for real estate in both the new construction, resale and rental markets.
Inventory Levels-
Keep your eye on the inventory levels because this is most likely to have the most dramatic effect on the local markets, especially at the neighborhood level.
Interest Rates-
What can I say? They’re going to go up. Inflation is going to be a force in our economy and interest rates will be effected if something else doesn’t curb the value loss of the dollar as compared to goods.
Seasonal Changes-
As usual, we are smack in the middle of the most active months for Real Estate in the Boise Area. Expect sales to slow as summer ends and we head into fall, it’s pretty much guaranteed. With the exception of the $8000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, which will have first time home buyers out gobbling up the homes under $250k – at least until December, that’s when it expires.
What Are Your Thoughts?
Will the Boise Area see an economic recovery before other states? Please leave your comments and ideas below!
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Moody.com’s 4th quarter hiring bonanza is baseless. Micron just laid off half their employees and is planning to replace each one with three Chinese workers who have a $100k mortgage vs. one Idaho worker with a $300k mortgage
People wanted higher prices and make their neighbor get stuck with the bill and cash them out for retirement. Well that doesn’t really work if your neighbor can’t compete or even has a job because the fake inflated price put everyone out of work. When prices fall and the cost to live and produce in the area goes down then jobs will return. High real estate prices don’t create jobs they destroy them.